Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.

Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.

Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.

With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.

When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Merck?

The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Merck (MRK Quick QuoteMRK - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) two days from its next quarterly earnings release on April 30, 2026, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at -$1.47 a share.

By taking the percentage difference between the -$1.47 Most Accurate Estimate and the -$1.51 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Merck has an Earnings ESP of +3.14%. Investors should also know that MRK is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

MRK is one of just a large database of Medical stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Tenet Healthcare (THC Quick QuoteTHC - Free Report) .

Slated to report earnings on April 30, 2026, Tenet Healthcare holds a #2 (Buy) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and its Most Accurate Estimate is $4.43 a share two days from its next quarterly update.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Tenet Healthcare is $4.21, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +5.14%.

MRK and THC's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>